Changing Perspective

By michaelpellissier on December 4, 2012 • ( 0 )

The Hornets entered the season as darkhorse playoff candidates, but key injuries to Eric Gordon, Jason Smith, and Anthony Davis have had the team playing below full strength. Currently, the Hornets stand second to last in the Western Conference, and until Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon get healthy, it appears the Hornets will be losing a lot of their games. Although the season already seems to be slipping through the cracks, there have been some positive revelations that should not be ignored.

1. Anthony Davis is ahead of the curve. It is rare to exceed expectations as a 19 year old rookie, but Davis is doing just that. Age is a crucially important consideration when evaluating rookie performance, and it is fundamentally incorrect to compare two rookies without factoring it in. I conducted a search of every 19 year old season, and the result was striking: Anthony Davis is averaging the 5th most points per game. The guys in front of him are Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving. Right behind him? Kobe Bryant and Stephon Marbury. Davis is also shooting a higher percentage than all of those guys.

Biases:
a) Sample size- Davis has only played in 6 games this season, so every performance is heavily weighted.
b) Position- Players of smaller positions tend to shoot lower field goal percentages because they take more shots away from the rim. I also evaluated the players based on True Shooting Percentage, which I prefer because it takes free throws and 3s into account, and Davis is higher there as well.
c) Davis is not being compared to players that were not in the NBA at his age. Davis is essentially being compared to the one and done college players and players drafted out of high school. This leads to a smaller pool of players.

These statistics impress me because Davis was known in college for his defense, not his offense. He has been hitting mid-range shots, can handle the ball, and has shown a soft touch at the rim and the free throw line.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=per_game&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=18&age_max=19&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=ts_pct&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ts_pct

^Here is the search, for those of you that want to see it.

2. Austin Rivers is not selfish. Chad Ford, who does NBA Draft coverage for ESPN, questioned whether Rivers would buy into a team system, and his concerns seemed legitimate: Rivers was a bit of a maverick at Duke, hoisting up bad shot after bad shot. Based on his work as a Hornet, Rivers does not appear to be anything close to selfish. In fact, at times he has seemed passive on offense, though this has lessened as the season has progressed. His best work has come working out of the pick and roll, and it appears that he will continue to be used in this set moving forward.

Rivers has shown glimpses of the player he’s going to be. He can beat his man off of the dribble and get to the rim very well. He has also generated some good looks for his teammates from driving the ball and kicking it out once a second defender arrives. That said, he has been an abysmal finisher so far, and it is clear that he is a project. His shooting stroke is flawed, he’s too thin right now, and he gets stripped by second defenders on his way to the rim. His on-ball defense is getting better, and his recent effort against Kevin Martin of the Oklahoma City Thunder showed his progression. Martin is a very good scorer, and Rivers was forcing him into tough looks, which is all you can really ask of him at this point.

3. The idea that Ryan Anderson needs Dwight Howard to be successful is an absolute joke. Anderson has been a lights-out shooter for the Hornets thus far. However, he is not a #1 option, and right now he is being forced to play a more prominent role than he is meant to play. Good offenses need a guy that can consistently beat his man and score, and without Eric Gordon, the Hornets do not have that. Teams are keying in on Anderson and not allowing him space, because they know that other Hornets players are less dangerous. Ideally, Anderson should be a #2 or #3 option, and his presence should prevent opponents from being able to double-team his teammates. He has been exciting to watch, and I cannot wait to see him alongside some better players.

4. Brian Roberts is not a point guard, but he can score. Point guards get their teams into their offensive sets and create for others. Roberts, though the size of a point guard, plays more like a scoring guard. He will not develop into a starting-caliber player, but looks like he will be a serviceable backup guard for years.

The season will likely be a rough one, but this team’s rebuild was always going to be a process, and player development is crucial to the Hornets’ future success, so stay tuned.